After Janet Yellen’s speech at Jackson Hole last week, gold stocks sold off on the Chairwoman’s “hawkish” tone. It was once again an overreaction and misinterpretation of the Fed’s real impact on the economy. In his latest take on Yellen’s speech, Peter Schiff explains why the Fed’s “hawkish” talk is just a front to keep the markets anticipating action. In any case, Peter explains, the decision to hike or not will have little effect on the economy.
A rally in gold prices happened on Friday after Janet Yellen’s hint at a potential US rate hike in September. During the economic symposium at Jackson Hole, Wyoming, the US Federal Reserve Chair said the case for raising interest rates was gaining strength amid strong economic numbers. Gold rallied $20 an ounce with the dollar dropping against other currencies.
The Fed’s been looking for new friends this week, tuning out the haters and struggling to convince the public about potential rate hikes. Check out their follies below!
Flip-Flopping Fed Gets No Credibility from Market
A market that doesn’t care about the direction the Fed wants to take us can be a recipe for a firestorm. In 2016, the market’s faith in the Fed seems to be at an all-time low as they tout guidance, yet change course with as little as a single economic report contradicting them. All eyes were on Jackson Hole today as Fed Chair Janet Yellen opened up the annual Economic Symposium.
So what did she say? She stuck to her guns about the (now laughable) potential for another rate hike before the election. Those guns include being as vague as possible and hinting that a rate hike may or may not be coming very soon. All in all, Yellen didn’t really say much at all, other than to continue her standard issue talking points and give very little guidance for the market on the direction of the US economy.
According to Charles Schwab’s chief fixed income strategist, Kathy Jones: “Yellen succeeded in leaving the door open to almost anything. Unless there’s a huge rise in jobs in the next jobs report, [a rate hike is] still probably more likely in December than September.”
Bloomberg recently reported the safe depository company, Malca-Amit, is seeing a 90% jump in demand for storage of precious metals and stones in its Singapore-based branches. It’s hardly surprising given the 26% increase in gold and 37% rise in silver prices year-to-date. Like the rise in any metal, high prices are spurring many to dig through their old jewelry boxes and reappraise Grandfather’s gold watch for its intrinsic value.
The US Federal Reserve Presidents have been busy this week, flexing their speculative muscles and antagonizing the markets. In case you missed it, here’s everything they’ve been up to in the past seven days.
Global Banks Abandon US Bonds: Largest Selloff since 1978
In total, $192 billion of US Treasury bonds have been dumped off by other nations’ central banks in the first half of 2016, according to CNN Money. That’s more than double the rate of 2015. What does this mean? The world economy seems to be showing an overall trend of drastic weakening. Many of the nations, which include China, Japan, France, and others, need quick cash in an attempt to stabilize their shaky economies.
Earlier this year, chief of the International Monetary Fund Christine Lagarde predicted the beginnings of a global economic destabilization.
“There has been a loss of growth momentum,” Lagarde said. “Emerging markets had largely driven the recovery and the expectation was that the advanced economies would pick up the ‘growth baton.’ This has not happened.”
Now that these numbers have been released, it seems world banks are retreating inwards more quickly than the IMF anticipated. That’s a move Lagarde sees as a danger to everyone.
Yesterday was the end of some short-lived rallies as stocks fell back from their record highs and the dollar index retreated back to pre-Brexit lows. In the long term, these changes are showing the dollar continues to lose its purchasing power due to central banking’s bad fiscal policy. As the dollar declines, gold prices are likely to respond with upward movements throughout the remainder of the year.
Several economists for the International Monetary Fund (IMF) recently expressed concerns about moving interest rates into negative territory. They believe it could backfire on the European Central Bank (ECB), making banks less profitable overall and reducing lending.
Each week there are plenty of new reasons to get fed up with our beloved central bank. Here’s what they’ve been up to in the past seven days.
Ben Bernanke: Uncertainty Could Lead to No Rate Hike until 2017
On Monday, former Fed Chair Ben Bernanke laid out his thoughts on how the rest of this year would play out for the US economy. Overall, he sees that the past two years have brought about tighter financial numbers, weaker growth, and low inflation. Bernanke seems to estimate the Fed’s false promises of a rate hike have caused investors to slow down and even reverse course in some ways.
“Fed-watchers will see less benefit in parsing statements and speeches and more from paying close attention to the incoming data,” Bernanke said in his article for Brookings. “Market participants now appear to expect few if any additional rate rises in coming quarters.”
Of course, Peter Schiff has been predicting all along that any expectation that the Fed will raise rates should be taken with a hefty grain of salt.
The price of gold is up 26% for the year so far. Overall, the price increase is beginning to change investor portfolios, as more people consider buying gold and other precious metals. However, the hike in gold prices is also starting to influence governments and cultures all over the world, from Japan scouring the ocean floor for gold to Egypt changing its long-held marriage rites.
Unlike re-printable fiat currency, gold is money because there is a finite amount of it. The Fed can’t produce more gold whenever it wants. For this reason, gold has functioned as a barter and wealth preservation system for thousands of years. But how much gold is left in the earth? What will happen to the price when exploration stops or is limited?
