This week, the national debt edged closer to $20 trillion, double what it was at the beginning of Obama’s presidency. The FOMC minutes were also released from their latest meeting. As it turns out, the Federal Reserve just doesn’t know how Trump’s incoming presidency will affect the economy.
Trump is Stumping the Federal Reserve
Some are calling it a “climate of uncertainty” for the economy this year, and the Fed doesn’t seem to know what to expect from Trump when he takes office in a few weeks. FOMC expectations are high that the president-elect’s tax cuts and fiscal spending will goad inflation to rise, increasing the need for interest rate increases. At this point, some Fed members can’t decide if Trump’s going to grow the economy or balloon inflation. Given the abundance of uncertainty in European politics and policies at home, the Fed’s path to three rate increases this year will be a rocky one.
Oil prices rose and the dollar weakened Wednesday as gold futures maintained a three-week high even as the release of FOMC minutes seemed to suggest a more aggressive rate hike schedule was being considered, according to MarketWatch.
After its vote last month to raise the Federal funds rate 25 basis points, the Fed estimated three quarter-point rate increases for 2017. However, the FOMC minutes suggested there were a “number of risks” that would necessitate a “different path of policy” than they expected. One of those “risks” was clearly Trump’s stimulus plan, and the “uncertainty regarding fiscal and other economic policies.”
In his latest podcast, Peter Schiff lays out why optimism for the US dollar in 2017 is just wishful thinking. Trump’s tax cuts and increased spending are likely to create only a fraction of the stimulus most people expect, given the budget deficits and national debt we face. Investor hopes also reside with Trump’s tax plan to include an import tax that would correct US trade deficits with China. However, taxing imported goods will only drive up the cost of consumer goods, negate any increase in consumer spending, and diminish the purchasing power of the dollar. Peter explains:
“When the cost of importing goes up, it’s not like Americans are just going to switch from buying goods made in China to goods make in America. No, they’re just going to have to pay more to buy the goods made in China. If they don’t have the extra money, they just won’t buy as much. So, what’s going to happen as a result of increasing the cost of importing is that consumers will spend less and the bubble economy will deflate. There will be less consumer spending because consumers won’t have as much money or won’t be able to afford the higher prices. It’s going to have a negative effect on GDP.”
Along with its string of celebrity deaths, presidential comebacks, and populist political movements around the globe, 2016 will also be remembered as full of dramatic market changes. Because history tends to repeat itself, here’s a look back at the top five most popular Schiff gold blog posts of 2016 that may prove beneficial for investors in 2017.
3 Reasons the Dollar Will Fall with Trump’s Fiscal Stimulus
Peter Schiff explains that higher rates would mean a stronger return on the dollar as the cost of borrowing increases. This reasoning only works if you ignore these three realities of our current economy: Fiscal Stimulus Needs Monetary Stimulus, US Debt Increase, and Bursting the Bubble Economy.
The prices of gold and silver are always moving, influenced by factors such as current events, market speculation, currency fluctuations, and supply and demand. In 2016, there were several events that influenced the highs and lows of the gold and silver market. For investors, staying on top of these fluctuating prices is crucial to financial success. Here are some of the events that affected the market the most:
Economist Jim Rickards appeared on CNBC’s “Squawk Box” outlining his 2017 predictions for rate hikes, Trump stimulus, and the coming US recession. Rickards believes the markets are unwittingly pricing in a stimulus plan that will never materialize.
“Trump wants to cut taxes. Steve Bannon is talking to his advisors about a trillion dollars of infrastructure spending, cutting regulations. All of these things are viewed to be highly stimulative. That’s why the market is going up. Pharmaceuticals are going up on the repeal of Obamacare, banks going up on the repeal of Dodd-Frank.”
The markets and the Fed have the perception that tax cuts and spending will continue despite the realities of a fiscally conservative congress, a $20 trillion of debt and a 104% debt-to-GDP ratio.
The World Gold Council, a leading market development organization, released a study on global gold markets showing the retail investment market is “well positioned” for future growth. The study looked into four major markets: China, India, Germany, and the US and found healthy latent demand within every market. It also identified some interesting purchasing distinctions between developed and emerging economies.
Despite all the recent news concerning falling gold prices, world demand for gold bars and coins is still booming. Since 2006, global demand has gone from 430 tons to 1,051 tons in 2015, which is a monetary move from $10 billion to almost $40 billion, according to the study.
According to a recent Financial Times survey, a majority of top economists predict the Fed won’t be as aggressive on raising interest rates as it suggests. After last week’s rate hike announcement, the Fed’s own dot plot showed it had planned for three federal funds increases for 2017, according to MarketWatch. However, the majority of economists in the Financial Times survey were confident with only one hike in June.
Unsurprisingly, the Fed decided to raise rates this week to a range between 0.5 -0.75%. Janet Yellen cited dropping unemployment as one of the primary reasons the FOMC green lit an increase. However, an economy so dependent on cheap money for so long may find it difficult going through the withdrawals of higher rates, especially in mortgage and auto loan markets.
Increasing Mortgages Could Make Homeownership Harder for More People
We’ve enjoyed a bottomed out 3.5% interest rate on 30 year mortgages for a long time. That’s significantly lowered the barrier to homeownership in the US. Unfortunately, higher long term rates, which are continuing to rise, will find more support from the Fed’s move. Increase monthly payments will threaten not only new applications, but existing homeowners trying to make ends meet. Many people are still finding it difficult to afford a mortgage payment. After Wednesday’s rate hike, that barrier might become much bigger.
As many expected, the Federal Reserve raised the benchmark interest rate to a range of 0.5% – 0.7%. During Janet Yellen’s announcement, she said rising employment rates among other measures have led to “considerable progress” for the economy, adding she and her FOMC colleagues expected the economy to “continue to perform well.” In response to the rate increase, gold prices began a steady decline beginning around 1 p.m. GMT at $1,161.84/oz. and ending the day at $1,141.77/oz.
