Banks have restocked gold recently, but with the massive drawdown in inventories over the last year, the recent increase has done little to actually replenish those supplies.
This analysis focuses on gold and silver within the Comex/CME futures exchange. See the article What is the Comex? for more detail. The charts and tables below specifically analyze the physical stock/inventory data at the Comex to show the physical movement of metal into and out of Comex vaults.
The Federal Government ran a surplus last month, as it typically does in April due to the tax deadline. The surplus was $176B which was 43% lower than the surplus last April. As the chart below shows, this was driven entirely by collapsing revenues as expenses actually fell as well.
The CPI rose in March by 0.37%, which was much larger than last month’s 0.06%. As shown below, this was driven by the energy component flipping from negative to positive.
And there’s even worse news. The math is about to turn on the CPI calculation.
While the US government is not currently adding to the national debt due to being up against the debt ceiling, it is working overtime trying to keep the government afloat.
Significantly, the interest on the national debt is skyrocketing even with the temporary lull in borrowing.
The Bureau of Labor Statistics (BLS) reported that 256k jobs were added in April with major revisions down in previous months. Meanwhile, the Household Survey reported only 139k jobs in April, the lowest amount since November last year.
In 5 days, the COMEX has seen 4,190 contracts open and stand for immediate delivery. This is the strongest start to a month going back at least 2 years, which includes the start of the war in Ukraine and the February 2021 Reddit silver squeeze.
The March Trade Deficit decreased for the first time in four months. The total deficit came in at -$64.2B, which is the second smallest deficit since January 2021. This might seem like good news but it’s yet another indication of a weakening economy.
The CoTs report is a breakdown of open interest in the major futures markets as reported by the US Commodity Futures Trading Commission
Please note: the CoTs report was published 04/28/2023 for the period ending 04/25/2023. “Managed Money” and “Hedge Funds” are used interchangeably.
The Fed is still bailing out banks.
The Bank Term Funding Program (BTFP) reached a new all-time high in April, suggesting that the banking crisis has not yet passed.
And while the aggregate balance sheet looks to be shrinking, the detailed data shows it is more complex than that.
Silver has seen a relatively weak delivery to start the action in May. While this could be considered disappointing to some who were looking for fireworks, a look beneath the surface shows that all is not well.
