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Exploring Finance

POSTED ON September 4, 2022  - POSTED IN Exploring Finance

As highlighted last month, short positioning in gold was at the highest level since April 2019. This laid the seeds for a potential short squeeze. While a squeeze did unfold, it was brief. Sellers have regained control of the market and are driving the price back down.

Please note: the COTs report was published 9/2/2022 for the period ending 8/30/2022. “Managed Money” and “Hedge Funds” are used interchangeably.

POSTED ON August 24, 2022  - POSTED IN Exploring Finance

Money Supply growth was positive in July at $42B but sits well below the $161B seen last year. As the chart below shows, Money Supply growth has collapsed since February. Last year started with 5 straight months above $200B whereas 2022 has only seen one month above $100B and that was January.

POSTED ON August 22, 2022  - POSTED IN Exploring Finance

The price analysis last month concluded that the market might have seen capitulation. It suggested the FOMC and GDP could spark a short squeeze based on the overly bearish COTs report. While gold rebounded strongly, it ran into stiff resistance and more hawkish talk by the Fed. With a large pullback from recent highs, is gold about to fall through another floor, or is it building support within the old range of $1750-$1800 where it was trapped for months?

POSTED ON August 11, 2022  - POSTED IN Exploring Finance

The latest seasonally adjusted inflation rate for July came in nearly flat at -0.03%. This was on the heels of a blisteringly hot June number of 1.35%.

While inflation did surprise to the downside, it had been expected to be much lower due to the fall in oil and drop in gasoline prices. The YoY number also fell as the reading from last July of 0.46% fell off the calendar.

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