The federal government ran an $88.8 billion budget deficit in June. That was up nearly $22 billion from the previous month, according to the latest Monthly Treasury Statement.
And this is supposed to be good news.
Fed Chair Jerome Powell and other members of the central bank have continued to talk tough about fighting inflation. But I’m pretty certain that in private, they were desperately hoping to see some cooling in the inflation data so they could start backing out of the ring. With a recession pretty clearly on the horizon (if not already here), you can bet that the central bankers don’t want to keep tightening monetary policy.
They didn’t get their wish.
Air is hissing out of the housing bubble faster and faster every week.
Pending sales plunged in June and the inventory of homes on the market jumped as mortgage rates continue to rapidly rise.
After the June FOMC meeting and the Fed’s 75- basis point interest rate hike, I argued that the central bank is totally winging it. Reading between the lines in the minutes from that June meeting seems to bear this out. The Fed appears to be in reaction mode. The question becomes what will it react to next? How long will the hawks keep flying as the economy tanks?
On July 1, the Federal Reserve Bank of Atlanta lowered its Q2 GDP projection to -2.1%, officially forecasting a recession.
So, much for Jerome Powell’s “soft landing.”
Well-known investment advisor Rick Rule said the Fed will chicken out on its inflation fight.
Rule runs Rule Investment Media and formerly served as the president and CEO of Sprott US Holdings Inc. In a recent interview, Rule said that the Fed could get inflation under control with significantly tighter monetary policy for a sustained period of time. But he said he doesn’t think the central bank has the wherewithal to follow through when the economy starts to crash.
Even with rising interest rates and the dollar at multi-year highs, gold has held its ground. Nevertheless, we have yet to see a big spike in gold prices despite persistent inflation. Why not?
The perception is that rising interest rates are always bad for gold. But does perception match up with reality?
If history is any indication, the answer is no.
As Americans labor under the burden of inflation, the Biden administration keeps telling us the economy is just fine. White House press secretary Karine Jean-Pierre recently said we are “transitioning” to “steady and stable growth.” As a result, she claims the American people are in a place where they can “take on inflation.”
Americans aren’t buying it. In fact, they’re buying less of everything as rising prices squeeze their wallets. Consumer confidence has plunged to historically low levels. But as bad as things are, the worst could still be yet to come because the proposed solutions are worse than the problem.
These people never learn. Or they just don’t care.
The Biden administration is reportedly still considering sending out gas rebate cards to help Americans cope with rising gasoline prices. But this kind of government handout is one of the primary reasons we’re suffering through this inflation firestorm to begin with.
A 75 basis-point rate hike wasn’t even on the table a month ago. It appears that the central bankers over at the Fed were crawling around under the table because they found a 75-basis point rate hike.
The Fed went big at the June FOMC meeting in response to hotter-than-expected May CPI data just a week earlier. Jerome Powell admitted that Fed members were “surprised” but another big spike in prices.
So, what’s the plan here? Well, by all indications, there isn’t one.
