In yet another sign the economy is tanking, private-sector business activity contracted for the second straight month in August.
The S&P Global flash composite purchasing managers index (PMI) dropped to 45 this month from a reading of 47.3 in July. A print below 50 indicates a contraction in economic activity.
The tanking housing market is starting to put a strain on the mortgage industry with some lenders already going out of business. Analysts project the wave of failures coming down the pike could be the worst since the housing bubble burst and triggered the Great Recession.
The central bankers at the Federal Reserve continue to talk tough about fighting inflation. But is it a fight they can win?
The numbers say no.
The mainstream has suddenly discovered price movements impact retail sales.
For months, retail sales generally came in higher than expected. And for months the mainstream financial punditry ignored inflation and told us this signaled a strong economy. But in July, retail sales unexpectedly fell flat. Now the mainstream financial punditry claims this signals a strong economy.
Fifty-one years ago this week, President Richard Nixon slammed shut the “gold window” and eliminated the last vestige of the gold standard.
Nixon ordered Treasury Secretary John Connally to uncouple gold from its fixed $35 price and suspended the ability of foreign banks to directly exchange dollars for gold. During a national television address, on Aug. 15, 1971, Nixon promised the action would be temporary in order to “defend the dollar against the speculators,” but this turned out to be a lie. The president’s move permanently and completely severed the dollar from gold and turned it into a pure fiat currency.
The US government is addicted to spending money. And the Federal Reserve is Washington DC’s pusher.
When we talk about inflation, we usually focus on money creation by the Fed. After all, that is the definition of inflation. But the Fed has to keep creating money in order to monetize the massive federal deficit. And until Uncle Sam gets his spending problem under control, inflation will never truly abate.
There is no sign the US government is going to get its spending problem under control. Last month, the feds ran the second-largest July budget deficit in history.
The tax man cometh!
And thanks to the Democrats in Congress, there will be more tax enforcers shining their lights into the nooks and crannies of Americans’ finances.
Cooling Consumer Price Index data did not cool the hot rhetoric coming from some Federal Reserve members. The question is whether this is a bunch of hot air or do these central bankers actually have the fortitude to move forward with rate hikes in the face of a sinking economy?
As expected, the Consumer Price index cooled a bit thanks to falling gasoline prices. The question is will this give the Federal Reserve the excuse it needs bow out of the inflation fight?
The Consumer Price Index for July was up 8.5% year-on-year. That was down from June’s 9.1% print and slightly below the 8.7% expectation. Of course, an 8.5% increase in prices over the course of a year is still extremely hot.
The Federal Reserve is all-in on the inflation fight.
Or is it?
While everybody focuses on interest rate cuts, the promised Fed balance sheet reduction isn’t going quite as promised.
