Peter’s Blog

Gold-backed funds reported an inflow of gold for the third straight month in May, flipping global ETF demand positive on the year.

I warned you. I said when the fake debt ceiling fight ended, the real problems would begin. Well, the debt ceiling fight is over, and here we are. On the first working day after the so-called Fiscal Responsibility Act went into effect, the national debt surged by $359 billion.

The April trade deficit came in at -$74.5B which was the largest trade deficit since October 2022.

With the passage of the Fiscal Responsibility Act of 2023, the fake debt ceiling fight is over. The federal government walked away from the deal with a shiny new credit card that has no limits. And what did we get? Spending “cuts” that actually increase spending and another great big tax increase.

Most people in the mainstream concede that the economy is heading for a recession, but the consensus seems to be that downturn will be short and shallow. Projections by the World Bank undercut that optimism. According to the World Bank, global growth in 2023 will slow to the lowest level since the 2008 financial crisis.

A large sale by Turkey in April caused global central bank reserves to fall for the first time in over a year, even as central bank gold buying continued. Official global reserves dropped by 71 tons in April, according to the latest data collected by the World Gold Council.

With a debt ceiling deal done, the threat of a US government default is off the table for the time being. But a wave of corporate defaults is on the horizon according to Deutsche Bank’s annual default study. This is the inevitable consequence of central bank monetary policy and it was entirely predictable.

Please note: the CoTs report was published 06/02/2023 for the period ending 05/30/2023. “Managed Money” and “Hedge Funds” are used interchangeably. Managed money has once again bailed on gold, which drove the price back below $2000 an ounce despite the “Other” group stepping in to absorb some of the selling.

We have a debt ceiling deal. And the deal is there is functionally no debt ceiling until January 2025.

The BLS reported that a whopping 339,000 jobs were added in May. This crushed median estimates of 190,000 jobs added. The Household Survey tells a very different story though, reporting a loss of 310,000 jobs.